Sunday, March 30, 2008
Doubleyoo. Tee. Eff?!?!
I'm all for role-playing. But Concentration Camps?
More here.
Is there a Godwin's Law corollary that covers orgies?
More homework
But first, I did call a friend of mine who works for UBS, to clear up some technical stuff I didn't understand and answer some questions I couldn't clear up with Google.
If the focus is to be on blame, I'll go with industry 60%, consumers 40%. What I'm saying is that for every 100 defaulted (or close to it) loans, loans where the customer is upside down (owes more than the house is worth), etc., in 65 of those cases, both parties are to blame, and in the other 35, it's the industry. So, that's 165 "Blame Points" (BP) to go around, of which the industry owns 100, and consumers 65.
The seed of the problem was planted 15 or so years ago, when banks really started selling off their loans aggressively, and mortgage brokers started becoming a factor in the industry.
For all these examples, I will use the same loan numbers, and ignore time value of money, opporunity cost, etc.
I will be using a $200,000 loan, 6%, 30 years. Monthly payment of $1199.10.
- At this rate, in 30 years, the bank will get its $200,000 back, plus $231,676.38 in interest.
- Now, don't forget, that's not all profit, because the bank borrows money too. From you! ABC Bank only has this money to begin with because your money is there, in your savings, checking, CDs, etc. On which the bank pays interest to you.
- Say the bank's average interest paid out rate is 4%. So that same loan cost the bank $143,739.01 over 30 years.
- Thus, the bank's take is $87,937.37. Over 30 years.
OK, we've got the basis for this lesson.
Let's look at a loan from back in the good old days:
John and Mary walk into their bank, and meet with Bill the loan officer. (Yes, banks used to have loan officers right there in your hometown; or, if not at every branch, a regional guy who would travel between two or three branches with appointments available at each, on a rotating basis.) They want to buy a house for $240,000, and have $40,000 available for the down payment, between savings and (very likely) private loan(s) from their respective parents.
Bill checks their income, their job stability, their credit rating, everything. Do you know why? Because Bill's employer, ABC Bank, doesn't want to lose money. And if Bill approves a bad loan, ABC Bank loses money. Now a certain percentage of these loans will always go bad, and that's all figured into projections of revenue streams, but bad loans are VERY expensive to the bottom line. So, too many of those, and Bill no longer works for ABC Bank. The upshot of all this: Bill might actually say "No." Look, you don't have enough income for this monthly payment, you credit isn't good enough, etc. Maybe look for a cheaper house, or come up with more of a down payment and we can lend you $180,000 instead. Still, "No" was on the table.
Anyhoo, in hundreds of branches, hundred of Bills were giving out thousands of these loans, and ABC bank knew that over the next 30 years, they had thousands of little $87,937.37 revenue streams (minus an estimated percentage of bad loans). And that's how ABC Bank made money. Borrowing money from the accounts at 4%, and lending it out at 6%.
Then, along came mortgage consolidation. Someone figured that if they packaged up thousands and thousands of loans, that's a HUGE revenue stream of "guaranteed" money over the next 30 years. How do they do this? Well, they buy the loans from all the banks.
Let's go back to John and Mary, but move the scenario to the year 2000.
1) ABC Bank writes the loan for $200,000. ABC is in line to make $87,937.37 over 30 years, with a certain percentage chance of risk, of course, but still, that's accounted for.
2) The next month XYZ Mortgage Consolidation offers to buy that loan for 1.02 times the principle right now (in other words, a 2% markup). Now, 200,000 x 1.02 = 204,000. So XYZ, in essence, is offering ABC $4,000 today for that $87K long-term revenue.
3) Peanuts, right? No! Remember, ABC now has its money back, plus $4000. That's a 2% profit. In a month. (Bonus: ABC doesn't give two shits whether John and Mary default.) ABC lends that $200K again. Sells it the next month, now it has $208,000. Let's go and say ABC Bank can lend-and-flip that same $200K every month. At the end of the year, they have $248,000. That's a 24% growth rate on that seed money. With. No. Risk.
What's in it for XYZ?
Why pay $204,000 now for 30 years worth of payments totaling $431,676? Why not just buy some CDs or bonds at 2.62% compounded? Well, that's small thinking. That makes sense for a single individual with $204K to invest, who wants his/her money relatively safe.
Let's think big. Let's do this 100,000 times! First, we raise $20,400,000,000. How? That's where Wall Street comes in. You raise 20.4 billion dollars by securitizing all this crap, and selling bonds and other instruments, most of which I don't understand.* Let's sell bonds at a 3% annual rate. You know, a "safe" investment for those who buy.
(*they don't understand either. Hence, you have what Atrios has aptly dubbed Big Shitpile. It's so sliced and diced it pretty much became a Ponzi scheme.)
So, XYZ "borrows" $20.4 billion by selling bonds, on which it pays out $612 million in interest per year. But it bought 100,000 of those mortgages, which have monthly payments of $1199.1, per month. 100000 x $1199.1 x 12 = $1,438,920,000.
That's a nice profit of $826,920,000. Per year. And that's just THIS year's mortgages. Wash, rinse, repeat. Keep buying mortgages, and paying out less in interest than you collect in monthly mortgage payments, and you're on one hell of a cash-flow gravy train.
Where did it all go wrong?
This only works if bankers are still abiding by the old rules of honestly checking the home-buyers' qualifications. Remember, though, that the bank no longer carries risk. Overnight, their concern went from "how do we ensure an as-safe-as-possible stable of loans for ourselves" to "let's write and flip as many fucking loans as we can for $4000 a pop."
Throw in the rise of the mortgage broker, who works for himself.
John and Mary go to Mark's Mortgage Brokery, tell him how much they make, what they want to spend. He writes up the numbers, and shops that around to banks until one bites and writes the loan. The bank pays him $500 out of their $4000 profit. Now they don't even need to have a Bill staffing every branch, because there are thousands of self-employed brokers doing all the "work" for them. Now, the banks and Mark want to write as many loans as they can.
This is a large part of what created the housing bubble. If the bank won't say no, everyone can buy a house. If everyone can buy a house, you have too much demand for not enough supply. And there you go.
At some point, home values just can't go any higher, and you have a correction. Or crash. And the bill comes due.
PHEW! That was a long way to go to get back to the original question.
Who's to blame?
First and foremost, this is all an industry creation. And it might have made sense, according to traditional lending rules. But they went out the window. Cause and effect.
Like I said at the beginning, in 100% of bad loans, the industry gets a "Blame Point." They're the experts, right? Once they abdicated their responsibility to say "no" to people who OBVIOUSLY couldn't afford a mortgage at all, or who could have afforded $200K but wanted $400K instead, the lender gets a BP. When the lenders created the ARM, when they knew that that $1250 monthly payment would turn into $2500 in two to three years unless the borrower re-financed or sold, they get a BP.
When does the consumer get a BP, along with the lender?
- When he takes out a loan on that stupid McMansion he doesn't need.
- When he does this. This case study is fucking astounding! Don't forget, though: they always found a lender to say yes, as long as the "market value" increased.
- When he signs for an ARM, or interest-only loan, or some other stupid concoction. You can yell about "unscrupulous" or "predatory" lenders all you want, but at the end of the day, John and Mary signed that fucking piece of paper, because they wanted their "dream home," instead of just walking away to let their heads clear.
Aren't there cases where no one is to "blame?"
Sure. Look, even in the old days of well-vetted loans, shit happened. People lost jobs, people got sick and burdened with ridiculous medical bills... shit happened. I don't mean to be callous, but that's life. The bank knew that a certain percentage of its loans would turn out bad, for whatever reason. I feel for those "certain percent" people. And as a good liberal, I certainly believe that FUCKING MEDICAL EXPENSES should never bankrupt you out of your home, but that's a whole other dissertation, handled by people more qualified than I am.
Anyway, I have work to do, so I have to be done with this.
Any comments or criticisms by people who know better, please, I want to hear them. I know I've simplified a lot, and based all these numbers on the same mortgage without even getting into changing mortgage rates, inter-bank rates, Fed rates, etc.
Friday, March 28, 2008
The 2008 Yankees
The 2008 New York Yankees:
Lineup
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jason Giambi 1B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF
Bench
Jose Molina C
Shelley Duncan 1B-RF-LF
Morgan Ensberg 1B-3B
Wilson Betemit 1B-2B-3B-SS
Starters
RHP Chien-Ming Wang
RHP Mike Mussina
RHP Phil Hughes
RHP Ian Kennedy
Relievers
RHP Mariano Rivera
RHP Joba Chamberlain
RHP LaTroy Hawkins’
RHP Kyle Farnsworth
LHP Billy Traber
RHP Ross Ohlendorf
RHP Brian Bruney
RHP Jon Albaladejo
————-
60-day disabled list
RHP Andrew Brackman
RHP Humberto Sanchez
RHP Carl Pavano
15-day disabled list
LHP Andy Pettitte
RHP Jeff Karstens
Yikes. That's a lot of money for not a lot of depth.
This could be the least home runs a Yankee outfield has ever hit. In fact, this team kinda sucks, on paper. Well, they'll figure something out. Not surprised, though, that a lot of pundits have them missing the playoffs. And I have to admit, that pitching staff and that lineup will have a hard time keeping up with the Indians or the Tigers in the battle for the Wild Card spot.
Hughes and Kennedy need to prove themselves, and quick, otherwise it's Wang, Pettite, and disaster.
And he's already better than Joe Morgan
Dustin, you NEVER swing on yellow and blue! Don't you know anything?
Seriousness
|
Too funny.
Down the shitter we go...
The U.S. dollar's value is dropping so fast against the euro that small currency outlets in Amsterdam are turning away tourists seeking to sell their dollars for local money while on vacation in the Netherlands....
That's because the smaller currency exchanges -- despite buy/sell spreads that make it easier for them to make money by exchanging small amounts of currency -- don't want to be caught holding dollars that could be worth less by the time they can sell them.
On education and more
While you're there, read this on monetary policy, and this on the insanity of the "rebate" checks.
And, most importantly, this. This is why China owns us.
UPDATE: Mike brings up a good point. White text on black sucks to read. But there are other color schemes available, at the top of the left column. Read these fuckers, will ya?!
Thursday, March 27, 2008
No improprieties, here. No sir.

Meet Kenneth Page. Highly sought-after, highly recruited high school football player. He eventually signed with Clemson. Clemson's school color seems to be mighty similar to that of the shirt Mr. Page is wearing.
Not that I'm implying anything here.
Tommy Bowden, Clemson coach, should be quite proud of signing such a hard-working young man. Maybe Tracy can confirm this for me, but the purple strip is 100 $20 bills. So we're talking $20,000 cash right there. That's a lot of newspaper routes, shoveled driveways, mowed lawns, and other chores. And a remarkable savings ethic!
I'm sure he only took this picture down from his MySpace page because he knew he was exposing himself to he criminal element. Not because someone at Clemson FREAKED THE FUCK OUT!!!!
And in baseball news...
The Giants' visit to their Triple-A affiliate really was a big deal. Chukchansi Park was sold out long ago, local hero Mark Gardner tossed the ceremonial first pitch and the teams lined up along the base lines for introductions as if this were Game 1 of the World Series.One of the squads appeared set for Opening Day, and it wasn't the Giants, who lost to Fresno 4-3.
In his final appearance before he starts the opener against the Dodgers, Barry Zito allowed four runs (three earned) over 62/3 innings against a Grizzlies lineup in which Nate Schierholtz was the Big Man On Campus, with 112 big-league at-bats. For the spring, Zito gave up 24 earned runs in 25 innings.
Yikes!!!
Do we have a potential challenger for the worst record ever?
Bootstraps, bitch!

The Republican dream is becoming a reality. But hey, she shouldn't have had kids she couldn't afford, right?
(I must say that the $2500 interest-only mortgage was pretty fucking stupid, though.)
Speaking of mortgages, that "ownership society" Chimpy McNumbskull used to love to talk about? This is how well that's going. I saw this at Shakesville a couple weeks ago. It's from the BBC. Interesting that major American media outlets still haven't picked it up.
We are soooo, soooo, fucked.
Your Republican government at work
22-year-old with no employment history, a drinking problem, a restraining order against him, gets a $300 million government contract to supply arms to Afghanistan.
Of course, what he supplies is 30-40-year-old useless shit, leftovers from the Eastern Bloc.
Some choice quotes:
With the award last January of a federal contract worth as much as nearly $300 million, the company, AEY Inc., which operates out of an unmarked office in Miami Beach, became the main supplier of munitions to Afghanistan’s army and police forces. Since then, the company has provided ammunition that is more than 40 years old and in decomposing packaging, according to an examination of the munitions by The New York Times and interviews with American and Afghan officials.
Much of the ammunition comes from the aging stockpiles of the old Communist bloc, including stockpiles that the State Department and NATO have determined to be unreliable and obsolete, and have spent millions of dollars to have destroyed.
Problems with Albania’s decaying munitions were apparent earlier this month, when a depot outside Tirana, Albania’s capital, erupted in a chain of explosions, killing at least 22 people, injuring at least 300 others and destroying hundreds of homes.
Before the Army’s contractors began shopping from such depots, the West’s assessment of Albanian munitions was evident in programs it sponsored to destroy them. Through 2007, the United States had contributed $2 million to destroy excess small-caliber weapons and 2,000 tons of ammunition in Albania, according to the State Department.
A NATO program that ended last year involved 16 Western nations contributing about $10 million to destroy 8,700 tons of obsolete ammunition. The United States contributed $500,000. Among the items destroyed were 104 million 7.62 millimeter cartridges — exactly the ammunition AEY sought from the Albanian state arms export agency.
Albania offered to sell tens of millions of cartridges manufactured as long ago as 1950. For tests, a 25-year-old AEY representative was given 1,000 cartridges to fire, according to Ylli Pinari, the director of the arms export agency at the time of the sale. No ballistic performance was recorded, he said. The rounds were fired by hand.
On that basis, AEY bought more than 100 million cartridges for the Pentagon’s order. The cartridges, according to packing lists, dated to the 1960s. The company also hired a local businessman, Kosta Trebicka, to remove the ammunition from its wooden crates and hermetically sealed metal boxes — the standard military packaging that protects munitions from moisture and dirt, and helps ensure its reliability and ease of transport in the field. Mr. Trebicka, in interviews, said Mr. Diveroli wanted to discard the crates and metal boxes to reduce the weight and cost of air shipments and maximize profits. Several American officials said they suspected that the packaging was removed because it bore Chinese markings and the ammunition’s age.
More here.
Fuck you Jay Leno

UPDATE: The list has gotten huge! Check it out. Truly a collection of awesome.
UPDATE UPDATE: Holy carp, it's a website!
UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE: Moved to the top for a while. This is fun.
I have contributed the above work of art to Liss' Gayest Look For Leno project.
Full explanation here. Read that, and definitely follow the link to Jeff Whitty's open letter.
Leno has never been funny. But whatever, the mass market is for bland, tasteless idiots. What's his excuse for being total douchebag though?
South Park
- Heavy Metal (as in the movie). Fantastic artwork, btw.
- Anne Frank.
- Gateway drugs, and the drug wars in general.
- Bogus excuses for addiction.
- Wives as props at public apologies.
And yes, all that somehow made sense.
Best one yet this season.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Must-reads
And while you're there, read the one about Parkinson's Disease, his mother, and that fucking douche that a bunch of fucking idiots elected president.
And this one too. You won't read any war story more touching in a "real" publication, or on the shoutfests known as "news."