Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks - Playoffs (FIXED Edition)

OK, my spreads were ALL fucking wrong. They were on ESPN, but apparently that was an average of reader opinion or something. Here's the updated sheet.



I changed one pick, to Philly. I see that being a field goal game, max. And I REALLY don't like that Pittsburgh spread.

But then I see that's I've picked all four road dogs, and that can't be right either.

I'm so confused.

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks - Playoffs

OK, just me and TJ from here, and I grabbed Toast's and Shift's prediction from over at 2G.

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks - Week 6 - The Reckoning

Yep.

This is why Vegas keeps building hotels...

I think the Sands is renaming one of their rooms the Chemist Suite.

Spreads for week 6

@ATL 14.5 STL
NE 6.5 @BUF
@CIN 3 KC
@GB 9.5 DET
@HOU Pk CHI
TEN 3 @IND
@MIN 6.5 NYG
CAR 3 @NO
@PIT 10.5 CLE
@TB 13 OAK
@BAL 12.5 JAX
@NYJ 3 MIA
@PHI 1.5 DAL
@ARZ 6 SEA
@SF 3 WAS
@SD 8 DEN

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks - Week 5

Chemist's suckitude knows no bounds. And WTF kind of game was that, Eagles?

Spreads for SCLPL Week 5

Favored	Ind	Dal	Cle	NO	Pit	Mia	SF	NE	TB	Den	Hou	NYJ	Min	Phi	NYG	Chi
Spread	6.0	4.0	3.0	7.0	2.0	4.0	5.5	7.5	3.5	7.0	7.0	4.5	3.5	5.0	3.0	4.0
Underdog	Jac	Bal	Cin	Det	Ten	KC	StL	Ari	SD	Buf	Oak	Sea	Atl	Was	Car	GB

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks - Week 4

Vegas, baby. Vegas.

Spreads for SCLPL Week 4

Favored	Chi	Atl	Was	Ind	SD	StL	Mia	NYJ	GB	Ten	Ari	NE	Car	Bal	Dal	Phi
Spread	3.0	3.0	7.0	17.0	5.0	Off (0)	6.5	7.0	2.5	3.0	Off (0)	Off (0)	7.5	2.0	3.0	14.0
Underdog	NO	TB	Cin	Det	KC	Sea	SF	Buf	Jac	Hou	Min	Oak	Den	Pit	NYG	Cle

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks - Week 3

And this is why Vegas keeps building hotels...

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks - Week 2

The group lost a little ground, but is still profitable. No thanks to certain people.

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks - Week 1

Here are the results:


Get your picks in tomorrow, if you plan on including any of the Thursday games.

Here are the spreads for Mike and TJ:

Tennessee	@	Detroit	11.0
Dallas	vs	Seattle	12.5
Philadelphia	vs	Arizona	3.0
Buffalo	vs	San Francisco	7.0
Baltimore	@	Cincinnati	7.0
Indianapolis	@	Cleveland	4.5
Green Bay	vs	Carolina	3.0
St. Louis	vs	Miami	Off (0)
Tampa Bay	vs	New Orleans	3.5
New York (NYG)	@	Washington	3.5
San Diego	vs	Atlanta	5.0
Oakland	vs	Kansas City	3.0
New England	vs	Pittsburgh	1.0
New York (NYJ)	vs	Denver	7.5
Minnesota	vs	Chicago	3.0
Houston	vs	Jacksonville	3.0

The Toaster League Pick-'ems Challenge

Last week, I stated (and Toast agreed) that it was ridiculous that Arizona was only favored by 3 over Seattle. Nightshift disagreed, basing his argument on the fact that Vegas isn't predicting margins, they're just trying to balance the money.

This is, of course, true. But it didn't change the fact that that was a ridiculously easy spread to bet on. That the line didn't move to 6-7 by game-time surprised me.

When I celebrated my "win" on that pick, Shift had to point out my middling place in the Pick-'em standings. "Would that be the "angelos is in the bottom half of the game pickers" truth or the "even blind squirrels will find a nut now and then" truth?" Yeah, well fuck you too. I wasn't claiming I had a foolproof system (though I'll gladly create one if you subscribe for only $19.99 a month), I would say that there are always a couple spreads each week that are out of whack. In both my picks leagues, I pick all the games, and of course there are games I have no idea — and I would never touch them in Vegas. But I can always find two or three games I feel very good about.

So, for the gang in our Toasters pick league, and TJ and my brother if they want to participate based on the spreads in Ken's pool, here's the challenge for the final 6 games of the year.

After you make your picks, let me know by e-mail, or in the Couch™ thread, one to three "most confident" picks. Six picks to eighteen picks for the rest of the season. This is about making money. Assume a $100 bet with a 10% vig. Can you beat 52.4%, and make money?

I'll post results every Tuesday.

It's on.

Where's my superfecta now?!?!

Yesterday was the Travers, the crown jewel of the Saratoga racing season, and we were there with bells on, as usual.



This year we had a table of 6 at the Carousel Restaurant, one of the half-dozen or so on-site establishments. Erica, myself, Meghan and Renee (two of Erica’s co-teachers), and long-time friends Berns and Frank made up this year’s group of merry-makers.



As I predicted last week, I shouldn’t have been gambling. Where-as I was able to slowly build a pile of winnings last week with mostly “safe” bets and a couple high-odds ponies, Saratoga on Travers Day once again lived up to its billing as the “graveyard of favorites.”



Here’s how it went last week:
Bet 6, get back 18.
Bet 12, get back 16
Bet 6, get back 10
Bet 10, lose
Bet 12, get back 14

And so on. Nothing great, just a solid day in which I turned $60 into $85.



Here’s how it went yesterday:
Bet 6, lose
Bet 12, lose
Bet 6, lose
Bet 6, get back 8

And so on. I think only two favorites won all day. We had horses winning that went off at 28-1, 30-1, 88-1, 18-1, etc. And not only that, the favorites weren’t even close! It’d be fine if some nag came out of nowhere to win, but at least the favorite came in second so I could get back some money on the ticket with a Place/Show payout. But noooooo, the favorite came in 6th. All. Fucking. Day. Long.



You want to know how NOT exaggerating I am? Check out race 4:

Yes, that’s a $1,293 Exacta, and a $19,482 trifecta. You don’t see that very often.

But WAIT! There’s more! Look at this fucking thing:

You’re looking at a $2,565 Exacta, a $105,914 Trifecta, and a $1,523,188 Superfecta!! That had the crowd buzzing for a good 20 minutes. As the PA guy was announcing the payouts, the laughter and applause grew louder and louder, reaching ovation levels as he slowly annunciated “one… million… five… hundred… twenty… three… thousand…”

Needless to say, I had none of those horses. Some lady a couple tables over did. The exacta.



Well, after 10 races of slow bleed, my $60 SAM card now worth $17, it’s Travers time.

I’m poring over the Racing form, checking out all the tip sheets I have, trying to find something that will point me to the right underdog. Any underdog. But I couldn’t find one, so I went with the favorites: #2 Colonel John (sired by Tiznow), and Pyro. I know, I should have just cashed the ticket as is, but that’s no fun. I bet $3 WPS for Colonel John, and $2 WPS for Pyro. Two dollars left on my SAM card. Ouch.



In one of the tightest races ever at the Travers (we’re talking ½ inch, maybe), Colonel John eeked out a win, and Pyro finished third. A $15 bet brought back $33.85, cashing me out with $35.85, or $25 down. It’s a wash on the year, and I had a hell of time playing. I’ll take that deal.


We cashed out our tab (another ouch, especially when it wasn’t an even split), and headed off to Berns’ car for a tailgate on the first turn. We try to get out there as soon as possible to watch the final race right on the rail. More hijinx, more drinking, more laughter. Then, off to Siro’s, the place to be after the track. It’s quite a feat that place has pulled off. Total beer-fest on the outside, and a world-class restaurant and bar on the inside. Seriously, last time I was there, 8 of us racked up a $1700 tab, but we may have overindulged, since dinner was on the guy who won $4500 at the track that day… Elk? Sure, bring us over an elk. And a couple ducks. Bring the whole fucking zoo over, while you're at it. Medium rare.




Did I mention babe city? Frank, Berns and I had the privilege of the company of the three hottest women in the place, of course. But let me tell ya, Saratoga + Travers + nice weather = Sundresses and Boobs and Legs and Double-Takes. Especially for the two single guys in the group.

Story of the night:
Frank got to Siro's after us, and as he was coming in, he noticed two attractive women just off to the side. He's walking around looking for us, and he happened to stop within earshot of the following conversation between them:
Woman 1: I gotta take a shit. Wanna come?
Woman 2: Sure.



(Ignore the audio here, the mic on my Q sucks. But Siro's was packed, and HOPPIN'!)

Look at the horsie!

Meghan, Renee, and Erica at the track.

I'm actually having a decent day for a change, up $20 after 6 races. I've lost money on this weekend (my annual Alabama party) for years and years, but usually make up for it next weekend at the Travers.

If I finish today up, I may have to not gamble next weekend... oh, who am I kidding?

UPDATE: Finished $25 up.

A question, and some football talk

How come ABC Sunday Night football gets a good song with an interesting mash-up of artists (50 Cent, Perry Farrell, and more), while the best NBC Sunday Night Football could come up with was Faith Hill doing a 78-year-old Joan Jett song? And MNF still has that fucking Hank Williams IVIVXICLMIXVMCLI catastrophe?

Anyway, one thing about not going to a football school is that I have no rooting interest in any team. I can enjoy the fun and energy of a good college game no matter who's playing.

And I'm excited about this USC-Nebraska game. I'm thinking USC blowout, which is always kinda fun. But if the Huskers make a game out of it, that's even better. If Nebraska wins, then I witness a huge upset, and I get to enjoy the collapse of all the punditry that not only has this USC team going undefeated like it's a given, they practically crowned them as one of the best teams of all time before the season even started.

So, anyway. I have no dog in this hunt. I don't even have a team that I sort of adopted over the years. I just want to see a good game.

After I finish all that typing about good games and such, they put up a stat that says the Huskers under Callahan are 0-5 against ranked teams. OK, so maybe no upset today.

Also, I'm just about to hit "publish" and USC takes its first play from scrimmage 50 yards on a run play. Yeah. What's the spread on this game? (brb...) USC -10? I think I'd give the points, and take the under (50.5).

Check that. 96 yards, 4 plays, TD. Take the over.